Archive for May, 2009

Analysis of Lok-Sabha Election – 2009

May 18, 2009

First of all, I would like to declare that I don’t belong to any political party and my reviews provided here are impartial. The analysis is based on data collected from various sources available. I analyzed the results of Lok-Sabha election – 2009 very carefully and herewith provide the results of my analysis. I also reviewed the analysis of various political experts on this provided in media. Most of the media and television channels were projecting that there was a great swing and voting was done into the favor of congress for its work and also credits to Rahul Gandhi for his development talks during his rigorous canvassing. Many said it was a surprise outcome for them. I don’t agree with the most of the analysts and I don’t see this is an effect of very great job done by congress at center. For me, the outcome was an expected one. If this was the result of work done by congress in recent five years then what congress did in previous 40-45 years during which it served the people of country. I don’t use word of any party ‘ruled’ the country here since I get a smell of British rule based on slavery system. Instead I use the word serve or Lok-Seva. If I remember, I heard twenty five years ago, when Rajiv Gandhi stated that if one rupee was released from center for the development, only one paisa is reaching for the real development and remaining is eaten by corrupt public servants in corruption and bribery. Now I would like to know that is there any change in this phenomenon? Is now 100% reaching to the ground where the development works is being performed. I don’t see any difference yet but please let me know, if anybody see it. Because of too much corruptions and bribery in India, I don’t see real developments in villages of India and there are some developments in urban areas but it’s not so impressive. This is all because of corruption. Most of the people don’t understand what the atomic deal is and also “Gramin Rozagaar Yozana” couldn’t impress the people because of bribery and corruption are coming into way for implementation. Also, during the previous assembly elections in few of the Indian states held recently, Rhaul factor didn’t work, so I don’t understand it has worked so quickly in this Lok-Sabha election.

 When we review the results of this election, we see that there were still the factors like caste, religion, money and personality which dominated most and worked as it was working earlier. I agree that there was some development factor too but only few have voted on this yardstick. For example, let us consider the results of my home district Ballia, UP. I haven’t seen any development or great work done in last 20 years in Ballia but people still vote on the basis of caste and personality. They never consider the development as basis otherwise they would have given a chance for a change. If we say that Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Orrisa etc were example for the basis of development to vote, so why it was not the case for the states like Madhya Pradesh. Gujarat, Uttarakhand etc where congress did better. Bihar was an exception, since people really see a change after twenty years of miss governance of the state but the data show that all other states voted based on caste, religion, money and personality. As per my analysis, the minorities were the real factor for this outcome, which was expected in this election. The minorities have fear of BJP and they really don’t want to see the BJP forms any type of government anywhere. This time where the minority votes were not split adequately, the non-BJP alliance got the upper hand but where the minorities’ votes were divided, the BJP alliance benefitted. If RJD would have alliance with congress in Bihar, we would have seen a different result. This time the regional parties didn’t get minorities votes as they expected because of the minorities were not sure, if voting them will not allow to avoid the BJP government and therefore congress got benefitted. The states where congress has done better this time can come into this category.

 Most of the parties at national level can’t be categorized as real secular parties, if they really follow the yardstick of secularism. If BJP favors majority of country, then congress, RJD, SP, BSP etc favors the minority and can go any level to appease them. Let us see an example here: Varun Gandhi was booked for NSA by BSP government in UP and congress also doesn’t see anything wrong in it and okayed that decision. If BSP and congress Lok-Sevaks were right then why judiciary didn’t agreed with them. If both the parties would have been really following the principles of secularism and not interested in vote bank politics, they would have taken right course of action against Varun Gandhi and so would have not embarrassed by the decision of Supreme Court. Sometimes I think, if such politicians of so called secular parties would have been given constitutional provisions to override the court’s decision, what would have they done to this country. Thank god, our system is still working and we have good, honest and secular people in our country and because of them we still survive. The real factor of minority not supporting the BJP will always work against it and it is time for them to devise a new strategy and take with them the minorities. One more factor of having bad result for BJP is being vocal against a prime minister belonging to a minority community. The way the BJP leaders handled this, was not proper. Everyone in India knows about who makes the decision in congress serviced governments and a strategy to calling Mammohan Singh as weak PM was not a good one. If this PM would have been from a majority community then perhaps the BJP’s blame would have not hurt the sentiments of particular minorities and this strategy could have worked.

 Still we have to go a long way to clean the money, caste and religion based corrupt politics. The people of India have not yet reached to a state, mostly in rural areas, where they can treat every caste equally and not fight on basis of caste and creed. It will take time. When political parties will start working towards welfare of suppressed/Dalits, poor and citizen of India with policies without reference of caste and religion, we can say that there is some change in politics in India. We should expect this from every party. We need a change in mentality of government’s servants, ministers and politicians to think themselves as lok-sevaks and not a ruler. Recently, I heard a story from one of my friends that during the canvassing in this election, one of the candidates of Member of Parliament was touching the feet of people to get their votes. Once he was elected and he was given value by district officials, he was changed and forgotten his past. He started thinking like boss and was forgotten to greet the people with that respect. This needs to change. If our voters get educated and understand their rights, they will start demanding for good governance and they will start voting on criteria of their development. And then the manifestos of every party should start looking similar. Here are some lessons for various parties:

 For all parties: Agenda should be removal of corruption and only concentrate on development of general public. Invite businesses for Investment in rural areas.

Congress: Try to avoid religious appeasement and reach to the Dalits.

BJP: People think this is a party of rich and upper caste. Avoid religion based manifestos. Try to reach to minorities and Dalits.

SP/RJD/LGP: Take everyone together and avoid caste based politics. Avoid practices of minorities’ appeasement and Stone Age based policies. Better to merge with congress.

BSP: Take everyone together and avoid caste based politics. Avoid practices of minorities’ appeasement. Still upper caste people don’t have faith in it and might take some time.

NCP: No different than congress. Better to merge with congress.


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